It’s the kind of prediction that can get a Vegas bookie’s blood going: Name the date and time that the Dow will cross the 10,000 threshold. The answer, of course, is that it could come at any time. On Oct. 15, when the latest Consumer Price Index is announced — or not. On Oct. 23, when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the Federal Reserve in Boston – or not. So on the heels of a record rally for the market in the third quarter -- and now some jitters too -- we decided to take a stab by canvassing the investing pros. We talked to more than three dozen, asked them to place their bets, and explain their reasoning. Some took the task seriously (investment banker-turned-financial journalist Nomi Prims: Oct. 9, at the open, 9:30 a.m., explaining it would take that long for jobless numbers to sink in). Others were light-hearted, naming the impossible (when the Yankees win the World Series) or the inscrutable (Robert D. Arnott, chairman of Newport Beach, Calif.’s Research Affiliates: Inflation-adjusted, in year 2000 prices, we will re-cross the 10,000 mark on valentine’s day, 2018). But with the predictions all over the map, we wanted to find a way to boil the answers down to one date and time. We averaged out all of the specific predictions — a process that involved converting the figures into Julian dates, if you must know. For those who supplied a day, but declined to pick the hour, we chose noon for them. For those who tied the market threshold to the outcome of a certain baseball team’s performance, we picked the day after the scheduled date for this year’s World Series Game 7. Technically, the math we did puts the Dow crossing the 10,000 threshold in late March, 2010. But if we exclude one extreme outlier (with a prediction that puts the threshold in 2018), our poll says the DJIA will hit the five-figure line on Dec. 7 when the market opens. Put it on your calendar. Here’s a look at the individual prognostications: Fredric J. Tomczyk President and chief executive officer, TD Ameritrade Tomczyk helped negotiate the deal that led to the merger between TD Waterhouse and Ameritrade in 2005. PREDICTION: “When the New York Yankees win the world series.” Rusty Vanneman Director of research, E*Trade Capital Management, LLC Vanneman is the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at E*Trade’s Kobren Insight Management. PREDICTION: Oct. 27, 2009 “That would be nice – it’s my wedding anniversary – thereby ensuring my wife and I enjoy a better meal this year than last!” Robert D. Arnott Chairman, Research Affiliates, LLC Arnott heads a $31 billion investment management firm and has been an advocate of fundamentally-weighted indexes. PREDICTION: Feb. 14, 2018, 11:20 a.m. “Inflation-adjusted, in year 2000 prices, we will re-cross the 10,000 mark on valentine’s day, 2018.” Ed Yardeni Chief investment strategist, Yardeni Research Yardeni, a veteran strategist, is president of an independent investment consultant firm. PREDICTION: Dec. 7, 11:30 a.m. “That’s when my oldest son was born.” Phil Orlando Chief equity markets strategist, Federated Investments Orlando, who has been in the investment business for nearly three decades, develops equity strategy for Federated, which manages $401.8 billion in assets. PREDICTION: Oct. 9, 2009, 3 p.m. “The DJIA will hit 10,000 again on Friday, as investors are encouraged by better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings and improving economic news.” Mark Heesen President, National Venture Capital Association A spokesman for the venture capital industry, Heesen directs the NVCA’s public policy, research and educational programs. PREDICTION: Nov. 13, 2009, 2:40 p.m. Heesen says Friday the 13th has always been a lucky day for him. Nomi Prins Contributor, DailyBeast.com Prins, a former investment banker, is the author of “It Takes a Pillage: Behind the Bailouts, Bonuses and Backroom Deals from Washington to Wall Street.” PREDICTION: Oct. 9, 2009, at the open, 9:30 a.m. “A week after the month's unemployment figures are digested, and a day after next week's jobless claims indicate another downward turn, but before the holiday weekend.” Neil Hennessy Chairman and chief investment officer, Hennessy Funds Hennessy predicted a big rally last March, when the market was hitting new lows. Today, he says the market is in the early stages of a bull run that could last 10 years. PREDICTION: “Sometime in the future. Between Monday and Friday, and between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m.” Barney Frank U.S. Rep. D., Mass. Frank is chairman of the House Finance Committee, and is spearheading reform of the financial system. PREDICTION: “Mr. Frank declines to make a guess on what the Dow will do and when the Dow will do it,” says Steven Adamske, Frank’s spokesman. “He is focused solely on financial regulation reform.” Peter Schiff President, EuroPacific Capital Schiff is a renowned pessimist on the U.S. economy who has been running his own investment firm since 1996. PREDICTION: If I knew the exact date I could probably get rich on it with some sort of options strategy. "During the years that the bubble was being created, when all of the reckless behavior was going on, the market didn't understand the implications of the bubble that was being pumped up. If anyone drew the inference that all was well, they didn't grasp what was happening." William Rutherford President, Rutherford Investment Management Former Oregon State Treasurer and author of "Who Shot Goldilocks?: How Alan Greenspan Did In Our Jobs, Savings, and Retirement Plans." PREDICTION: Dec. 19, 2009 "It’s my wife's birthday. I suspect that number has more importance to chartists than to fundamental investors, but I think we'll make it before the end of the year. But the market doesn’t know where it is when it's there." Sheryl Garrett Founder, Garret Planning Network Garrett, a certified financial planner, is the author of “Investing in an Uncertain Economy for Dummies” and “Garrett’s Guide to Financial Planning.” PREDICTION: Oct. 14, 2009, 10 a.m. “Not that it’ll stay above 10,000 for long, but I believe we’ll be there soon based on slightly better-than-expected earnings reports from the broad market and lots of M&A activity.” Richard Barrington Personal finance expert, Moneyrates.com Barrington’s work appears on Moneyrates.com, a site that helps users find rates on CDs, money-market accounts, and high-yield savings accounts. PREDICTION: Feb. 12, 2010, 3:30 p.m. “That way, if I’m right, I can go to happy hour.” Paul Larson Equity strategist at Morningstar Larson is also the editor of StockInvestor, Morningstar’s flagship stocks newsletter.  PREDICTION: “It’s probably several months off or it could very well happen next week." “My crystal ball is broken. It has never worked reliably making short-term predictions. Stocks in general look to be roughly fairly valued at this point in time.” Patrick Galley Chief investment officer, RiverNorth Capital Management Galley co-manages the $275 million RiverNorth Core Opportunity fund PREDICTION: The week after Thanksgiving. Galley sees Thanksgiving retail sales beating expectations, leading some of the money that’s been sitting on the sideline back into the market. Of course, he says, “that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay there.” Dean Junkans Chief investment officer, Wells Fargo Private Bank Junkans, author of “The Anatomy of Investing,” helps oversee more than $200 billion in assets within this division of Wells Fargo. PREDICTION: “Once a four-wheel-drive can cross any frozen lake in Minnesota this winter, there should be enough ‘underpinnings’ in the economy to support 10,000 on the Dow,” says the Minneapolis resident. Muriel Siebert Chairwoman, president and chief executive officer of Muriel Siebert & Co., Inc. Siebert was in the company of 1,365 men when she became the first female member of the New York Stock Exchange in 1967. PREDICTION: “I’d rather predict the weather! Seriously, when the numbers show we’re adding jobs to the economy.” J.D. Roth Personal finance blogger, GetRichSlowly.org Roth is a full-time blogger who started writing about personal finance after finding himself with more than $35,000 in debt. PREDICTION: Oct. 15, 2009, 10:22 a.m. “I'm one of those who believes that it's impossible to time the market. But for the purposes of this project, I put my prejudices aside. I simply looked at recent market trends and used them to ‘guesstimate’ that it would take another couple of weeks to make up the difference between 9,500 and 10,000. Basically, I pulled the date out of thin air.” Dean Baker Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research Baker is the author of “Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy.” PREDICTION: Jan. 5, 2010, 10:33 a.m.  “There will be some bad news ahead that the markets are not anticipating, since many market actors seem to think that there are nothing but sunny skies ahead. It's not surprising that investors will be surprised. They couldn't anticipate a sunset at the end of the day.” Charles Farrell Denver-based investment advisor Farrell is the author of “Your Money Ratios: 8 Simple Tools for Financial Security.” PREDICTION: “I can say with certainty that the Dow will hit 10,000 on March 29, 1999 -- it did, you can check on Yahoo. And I am pretty confident that between now and whenever, the Dow will hit 10,000 again.” Peter S. Cohan President, Peter S. Cohan & Associates Cohan is a management consultant, venture capitalist, author and regular columnist for AOL’s DailyFinance. PREDICTION: May 15, 2010, 11:59 a.m. “When people begin to despair in February and March of next year, there will be a big selloff. That’s when the smart money will start to jump back into the market and you’ll see a nice rally that will start in February of 2010 through May 15 when the market will hit 10,000.” Al Subbloie CEO, Tangoe Subbloie is an entrepreneur and former management consultant. PREDICTION: Dec. 10, 2009, 1:30 p.m. “I believe the upside earnings surprises of last quarter will continue. Companies tightened their belts, and you’ll see some revenue upswings take place in October and November.” Bill Dunkelberg Chief economist, National Federation of Independent Businesses The Federation is an advocacy group in Washington. PREDICTION: Jan. 26, 2010, 2 p.m. “For the Dow to hit 10,000, it will require another 5%, or 500 points. Although that’s hard to get with a market that might be a bit ahead of itself, costs have been cut so dramatically that earnings will probably respond nicely -- even to modest gains in spending.” David Dreman Money manager, pioneer in behavioral finance and author. PREDICTION: Dec. 31, 2009, 3 p.m. “It’s hard to say since there’s no correlation between earnings and the Dow’s progress. The market seem to move on random news. With 90 points making 1% on the Dow, we are 5% away.” Theodore R. Aronson Founder, Aronson+Johnson+Ortiz  Aronson’s firm manages $19 billion, mainly in institutional funds. He worked for Drexel Burnham Lambert in its quantitative equities group before starting his firm in 1984. PREDICTION: March 31, 2010, a little after 3 p.m. “Why? Well, probably safe to assume that stocks will return 8%+ for the next year (return to normalcy and all that); take away the dividend and that’s a capital gain of 6%. For the Dow to get to 10,000, that’s a 3% advance. So, assuming stocks return 2.4 basis points each and every trading day (I told you it was a return to “normalcy”), it’ll be six months before the magic level is reached. I really mean the following: I am optimistic. But as Peter Bernstein said, it’s one thing to be optimistic, but another thing to believe in the tooth fairy. Or, trust in Allah, but tie your camel.” Mario Gabelli CEO, Gabelli Asset Management Company Investors Gabelli is the irrepressible money manager behind $21.4 billion GAMCO Investors. PREDICTION: No guess. “The day the Yankees win the World Series. A number means nothing.” Robert Rodriguez CEO, First Pacific Advisors Rodriguez breaks most long-term records on his stock and bond calls. He foresaw the real estate bubble and credit crisis, and now he’s seriously worried about U.S. debt. He calls this rally delusional. PREDICTION: No guess “This is a time for serious thinking rather than trivial games.” Bernard Lirola Managing director, Needham Growth Fund Liola is a growth manager with a great long-term record. PREDICTION: Dec. 7, 2009, 10 a.m. "Anticipation of strong Christmas sales and good comparisons over 4Q of 2008." Joel Tillinghast Portolio manager, Fidelity Investments Tillinghast oversees Fidelity’s $22 billion Low-Priced Stock Fund. PREDICTION: Nov. 4, 2009, 3:20 p.m. “People usually feel better after election day, since in a democracy their guy won. 3:20 p.m. because the daily program trading ramp-a-thon starts at 3:00.” Sean Burton President and chief operating officer, CityView Burton, a Los Angeles City Planning Commissioner, manages all operations at CityView, an urban real estate investment company. PREDICTION: Nov. 5, 2009, 9:52 AM EST "Third-quarter earnings will be higher than forecasts, September jobs data will be better than expected and investors will finally believe that the recession is over and American is back on track!" Diahann Lassus President of Lassus Wherley, a wealth-management firm with offices in New Providence, N.J., and Bonita Springs, Fla. Lassus is the immediate past chair of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, an organization for fee-only financial planners. PREDICTION: Nov. 23, 2009, 11 a.m. “My Bichon Frise, Samantha, was born on Nov. 23 and she’ll be 11 years old.” Mark Travis Chief executive officer of Intrepid Capital Funds Assets in the Jacksonville, Fla.-based firm’s four mutual funds have more than tripled to over $400 million this year, making Travis bullish. PREDICTION: Monday, Oct. 5, 2009, 2:30 p.m. “There’s still a lot of negative feelings out there. But 10,000 is a lot closer than people think.” How close? Try next week. Adam Stewart CEO of Sandals Resorts International PREDICTION: Nov. 9, 2009 "It should be a grand day, the day my first child, a son, is scheduled to arrive. We¹re expecting the market to go up, church bells to ring and peace to rule the planet..." Tom Forester Manager of the $92 million Forester Value Fund, which was the only diversified equity fund to stay in positive territory last year. PREDICTION: Dec. 31, 2009, 3:45 p.m. “We’ve come a long ways and we’re due for a breather. We’ll probably roll over for a bit and then pick back up at the end of the year.” Michael McDevitt CEO, Medifast While big dieting stocks like NutriSystem and Weight Watchers have declined, McDevitt’s firm has jumped to almost $23 per share today from a $3.35 stock price last September. PREDICTION: Jan. 15, 2010 “I think consumer spending will be down throughout the holidays, but come January, we’ll see a big run-up in spending, especially in diet products. Medifast will also be killing it in January, so maybe we’ll single-handedly drive up the Dow!” With reporting by Kristen Bellstrom, Kelli B. Grant , Reshma Kapadia, Jason Kephart , Dyan Machan, Angie C. Marek, Sarah Morgan, Elizabeth O’Brien, Neil Parmar, Diana Ransom, Brad Reagan, Bob Rose, Will Swarts, Aleksandra Todorova SMARTMONEY ® layout and look and feel of SmartMoney.com are trademarks of SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Hearst SM Partnership. © 1995 - 2009 SmartMoney. All Rights Reserved.